Spatial Crime Patterns | Criminal Geography

Criminal offenses such as property damage and theft can occur in virtually any conceivable socio-cultural environment—and in practice, they do. However, as in all areas of crime, there are geographic zones with a higher concentration of offenses. This issue is examined by criminal geography—on the one hand as a theory of crime distribution and on the other as a means of analyzing the causes of criminal activity.

Frankfurt repeatedly ranks at the top of crime statistics in Germany

Solving individual crimes in areas with high offense rates is considerably more difficult due to the larger number of perpetrators, who often operate with increasingly professional methods. For example, hotspots for residential burglary include Recklinghausen, Bremerhaven, and Düsseldorf, while North Rhine-Westphalia in general is heavily affected by break-ins. When it comes to vehicle theft, Frankfurt is considered particularly high-risk, and the financial metropolis regularly occupies an unfortunate leading position in crime statistics.

As a result of findings in criminal geography, so-called geographic profiling has been developed in recent years in Canada and the United Kingdom. This method attempts to narrow down the residential locations of serial offenders based on so-called anchor points.

Geographic Profiling – a technological tool for investigators

Geographic profiling refers to the identification of offenders in a series of crimes (assuming a serial offender) based on crime scene locations. It has been proven that offenders—whether acting alone or in groups—prefer to operate in familiar environments, though not in the immediate vicinity of their own residence in order to avoid recognition. Depending on population density, crime scenes may be located up to 30 km from the offender’s home, and only rarely farther (for example in the case of international criminal groups). Depending on the offender’s modus operandi, additional data can be incorporated into the geographic profile, such as: Who are the victims? What tools or vehicles were used?

Analysis software as an investigative aid

Using analytical software developed in the 1990s by Canadian police officer Dr. Kim Rossmo and continuously refined with mathematical algorithms, the probable residence of an offender can be calculated. All available crime scene data—such as damage, stolen goods, and traces—are fed into the program. While the software also considers factors such as movement patterns, victim profiles (male, female, domestic or foreign origin), and means of transportation (on foot, bicycle, car, etc.), topographical features (mountains, rivers, lakes, railways, highways) must be entered separately.

The topography of a crime scene and its surroundings is relevant in two ways: it may either obstruct an offender’s escape route or serve as a deliberately chosen path of escape. The software cannot distinguish between these possibilities. Likewise, it cannot determine whether similar crimes were committed by a single offender or by multiple independent perpetrators if their patterns do not differ significantly.

Technology alone cannot replace human investigators

Accordingly, while software and the concept of geographic profiling are valuable tools in identifying offenders, human reasoning and investigative work remain essential for drawing correct conclusions and implementing appropriate measures. The work of law enforcement officers—as well as private investigators such as those at Aaden Detective Agency Frankfurt—cannot be replaced by computers, but it can certainly be supported by them.